Randy Moss odszedł, co dalej z Patriots?
Randy Moss i Bill BelichickNajczęstszym tematem dyskusji, analiz i rozważań jest obecnie środowy transfer pomiędzy Patriots a Vikings. New England, w zamian za wybory w drafcie, oddali do Minnesoty swojego skrzydłowego. Randy Moss, po sześciu sezonach, wraca tam gdzie w 1998 roku zaczęła się jego przygoda w NFL. Jak ta zmiana może wpłynąć na Patriots i ich cele. Nie tylko w tym sezonie ale i w kolejnych? Pospekulujmy trochę co mogli zyskać bądź stracić oddając tego utalentowanego zawodnika.
Co zyskali Patriots bezpośrednio?
Najważniejszą sprawą dla New England jest to, że zdominują najbliższy draft. Na chwilę obecną mają aż osiem wyborów w pierwszych czterech rundach, po dwie w każdej z nich. Zakładając, że pozostawią sobie te wszystkie opcje (a tego do końca taki pewien nie jestem) będą mieli już ośmiu zawodników nim inne zespoły dojdą do trzech lub czterech. Cztery dodatkowe wybory uzyskali od Raiders w pierwszej rundzie (wygląda to obecnie jak los na loterii, mogą uzyskać naprawdę wczesną możliwość wyboru), Panthers w drugiej rundzie (patrząc na obecne wyniki powinno to być na początku drugiej rundy), Vikings w trzeciej i Broncos w czwartej (dla przypomnienia, nie kosztowało ich to wiele, wysłali niewiele wartego Maroney'a za to). Tak więc zespół może zasilić niezła fala młodych, utalentowanych zawodników. Dołączą oni do i tak już odmłodzonej grupy zawodników, budowanej wokół gwiazdy jaką jest rozgrywający. Pamiętajmy, że Tom Brady dopiero co podpisał nowy kontrakt. Wspierając go młodymi, gniewnymi zawodnikami można uzyskać niezłą mieszankę.
Co zaboli Patriots w tym roku?
Pomimo tego, że ewidentnie ofensywa New England przechodzi pewną transformację, Moss i tak uczestniczył w prawie 80% akcji ofensywnych w tym roku. Oczywiście jego miejsce zajmie inny skrzydłowy jednak nie będzie on od razu takiego kalibru. Randy Moss gra w NFL już kilkanaście lat i na pewno rozumie wszelkie aspekty gry. Jego bogate doświadczenie jest ogromną zaletą i nie jest łatwo coś takiego zastąpić. Do tego skrzydłowy ma uznaną markę w lidze. Obrona wie, że musi mu poświęcać odpowiednią uwagę. Jego kreatywność i spryt boiskowy powodował dziury w secondary i powodował, że Randy Moss był zawodnikiem, który był traktowany ze specjalną troską. Teraz, pozostała grupa futbolistów formacji ofensywnej Patriots przejmie na siebie całą tą presję. Raczej żaden z zawodników nie budzi jeszcze takiego uznania by skupić wyłącznie na sobie uwagę defensywy zatem każdy z graczy odczuje w pewnym stopniu brak skrzydłowego. A już na pewno zrozumie to Wes Welker. Czy WR, który dostawał najczęściej piłkę w tym sezonie od rozgrywającego, będzie w stanie sam pociągnąć ofensywę Patriots? Póki co raczej wątpliwe. Pytanie czy w ogóle będzie musiał... Tak czy siak, większość osób uważa, że ten transfer mocno obniża szanse New England na udział w Super Bowl. Jego brak rzeczywiście może być bardzo bolesny, przynajmniej na papierze...
Bo wcale nie będzie tak źle
Randy Moss w tym sezonie złapał piłkę tylko dziewięć razy w czterech spotkaniach, do tego w ostatnim ani razu (co zdarzyło się pierwszy raz w jego historii w Patriots). Porównując do wcześniejszych trzech sezonów w New England, gdzie skrzydłowy łapał w sumie średnio ponad 5 razy na mecz, widać ogromną różnicę. Być może ten transfer odbuduje zawodnika i jego postawę, mam jednak pewne obawy. W tym roku bowiem nie prezentował się już tak fantastycznie, wydawał się momentami po prostu na powolnego. Być może odżyje, tak jak Tomlinson w Jets, a być może jego kariera potoczy się tak jak u graczy jak Torry Holt czy T.J. Houshmandzadeh, którzy po przekroczeniu podobnego wieku zaczęli być wyraźnie słabsi. Co do Patriots to wydaje mi się, że uzyskali sporo za zawodnika, który wyraźnie dał do zrozumienia, że chce odejść. Bill Belichick dał jasny sygnał, że zespół jest przebudowywany. Teraz, z ogromnym polem do popisu w drafcie, jest to jak najbardziej możliwe. I nie uważam, że strata Mossa jakoś zaboli w tym sezonie Patriots. I tak nie dawałem im wielkich szans w tym roku. Widać jednak wyraźnie, że klub planuje stworzyć dobry, młody zespół, na którego czele będzie stał doświadczony rozgrywający. Być może celują w Super Bowl w 2012 roku lub trochę później? Nie przejmowałbym się tym ile ma lat Brady. W wieku 33 lat ma jeszcze sporo przed sobą. Przypomnę, że John Elway poprowadził Broncos do mistrzostwa mając 38 lat. Tyle samo miał Kurt Warner, który doprowadził Cardinals do udziału w Super Bowl. Dlatego uważam, że Tom Brady ma jeszcze 5-6 sezonów na wysokim poziomie w sobie a Patriots mogą szybko wrócić na tron jeśli odpowiednio wykorzystają najbliższy draft i dadzą młodzieży chwilę na rozwój.
Patriots zdobywają w tym sezonie średnio 32 punkty na mecz. Tak jak pisałem wcześniej, Moss już nie dostaje tak często piłek jak kiedyś więc jego wkład w ten wynik jest zdecydowanie mniejszy. Naturalnie absorbował cały czas obronę, teraz zatem pozostali zawodnicy muszą wejść na kolejny poziom. Brandon Tate otrzymuje ogromną szansę, przekonamy się na ile będzie na to gotowy. Jak narazie imponuje szybkością, dwa zdobyte przyłożenia przy kickoff return pokazują, że jest to duży atut tego zawodnika. Do tego świetnie prezentuje się dwójka młodych tight ends. Aaron Hernandez i Rob Gronkowski robią na wszystkich spore wrażenie. Zwłaszcza ten pierwszy, który pokazuje się jako silny i szybki zawodnik ze sporą umiejętnością łapania piłek. Niektórzy porównują go już do Dallasa Clarka z Colts. Może to na wyrost jednak talentu mu nie brakuje. Wydaje mi się, że ofensywa Patriots z powodu zmian w ostatnich miesiącach staje się bardziej zbalansowana i wyrównana. I to właśnie było wielką bronią New England kiedy zdobywali trzykrotnie mistrzostwo NFL w pierwszej dekadzie tego wieku. Uważam, że Patriots krzywda się nie stała i długofalowo więcej zyskają niż stracą na transferze skrzydłowego do Vikings.
Jaki to ma wpływ na Fantasy Leagues?
Chciałbym napisać, że wartość Moss'a wzrośnie od razu w związku z tym, że Brett Favre będzie się koncentrował właśnie na nim podczas spotkań. Nie jestem jednak przekonany na ile stać skrzydłowego w tym sezonie. Poza tym początkowo rozgrywający Vikings może mieć te same problemy z Mossem jakie miał z innymi graczami na starcie sezonu. Po prostu może nie czuć od razu jego stylu gry i ten komfort może pojawić się dopiero z czasem. Z kolei wartość jaką przedstawiał wcześniej Visanthe Shiancoe spadnie raczej na pewno. W związku z tym, że Vikings będą mieli kolejne zagrożenie w ataku, już nie będzie aż tak produktywny jak można było się spodziewać. Po stronie Patriots, z pewnością na wartości zyska Brandon Tate, który może odegrać większą rolę w ofensywie Patriots. Podobnie zresztą jak dwóch młodych tight ends, którzy w swoich pierwszych sezonach w NFL robią spore wrażenie.
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