Wild Card Weekend - Niedziela - Zapowiedź
Tym razem druga część zapowiedzi spotkań rozgrywanych w ramach Wild Card Weekend, czyli pierwszej rundy fazy play off. Zapraszam do lektury analizy przed niedzielnymi meczami.
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Bardzo wiele mówi się o tym, że Seahawks nie powinni grać w play off. Jeśli tak, to tak samo można powiedzieć na temat Chiefs. Przez cały sezon grali ze słabszymi zespołami, harmonogram był dla nich bardzo korzystny, stąd taki a nie inny bilans spotkań. Zagrali w końcu tylko z dwoma drużynami, które awansowały do play off wygrywając wyłącznie z drużyną z Seattle. Nic szczególnego, prawda? A na podsumowanie sezonu ich słabości obnażyli Raiders deklasując ich na ich własnym boisku. Kansas City w wielu spotkaniach mieli do czynienia ze słabymi defensywami i ich offensive line tak naprawdę nie zostało dość solidnie sprawdzone. Jednak w ostatnią niedzielę Matt Cassel poczuł co to presja, rywale zdobyli siedem sacks a Branden Albert, grający na pozycji left tackle, był kompletnie zagubiony na boisku. Swoją drogą, po niektórych uderzeniach Cassel wyglądał jakby ledwo miał siły by się podnieść. Offensive line, bez dwóch zdań, wykorzystało słabości defensyw rywali w grze akcjami biegowymi. Z szesnastu spotkań w sezonie zasadniczym, dwanaście miało miejsce z zespołami, których formacje obronne były na 16 lub gorszym miejscu w klasyfikacji traconych średnio jardów na akcję po ziemi. Dla porównania Ravens są w tym rankingu na szóstym miejscu i w ostatnich trzech meczach pozwalali rywalom na zdobywanie maksymalnie 3.2 jardów na akcję. Bez solidnego wsparcia ze strony gry po ziemi, Cassel będzie musiał przejąć ciężar gry ofensywnej na swoje barki. Z tak solidną obroną jaką ma drużyna Baltimore, trudno sobie wyobrazić by rozgrywający odniósł z nimi jakiś szczególny sukces. Chiefs raczej nie zdobędą wielu punktów w tym meczu.
Gdy Jamaal Charles będzie męczył się ze zdobywaniem kolejnych jardów, Ray Rice powinien mieć dużo łatwiejsze zadanie. Chiefs są na 20 miejscu przeciw akcjom biegowym a od kolejki numer 9, wszyscy z wyjątkiem trzech rywali zdobyli przeciwko nim przynajmniej 100 jardów akcjami biegowymi. Ravens powinni wykorzystać szansę w grze po ziemi. Czy jednak ofensywny koordynator gości, Cam Cameron, będzie pamiętał o tym by wystarczająco często wybierać akcję z wykorzystaniem Rice'a? Ten trener nie jest najlepszy w swoim fachu i czasami zapomina, że proste rozwiązania potrafią być bardzo skuteczne. Nie widzę nic złego w oddawaniu piłki swojemu najlepszemu ofensywnemu zawodnikowi w zespole. Tym bardziej, że Joe Flacco będzie potrzebował wsparcia swojego running back. Podobnie jak w przypadku Kansas City, offensive line Ravens nie jest jakoś sczególnie dobre. W ostatnich dziewięciu spotkaniach pozwolili przeciwnikom na zdobycie aż 29 sacks. Na koniec sezonu nawet drętwi Bengals zdobyli ich aż cztery. Pamiętajmy, że Tamba Hali ma za sobą fenomenalny sezon i jego oddech na plecach Flacco poczuje wielokrotnie. Dlatego bardzo ważne jest by goście odpowiednio często wspierali się gra po ziemi.
Tak jak pisałem wielokrotnie w tym sezonie, nie cenię Chiefs za tegoroczny dorobek specjalnie wysoko. Uważam, że Ravens są zespołem zdecydowanie lepszym i powinni wygrać ten mecz. Baltimore to drużyna doświadczona w bojach i dla nich gra w meczach wyjazdowych w play off nie jest ogromnym wyzwaniem. W ostatnich dwóch sezonach wygrali swoje spotkania w Tennessee, Miami oraz New England. Dlatego tym bardziej nie spodziewam się by mieli jakiekolwiek większe problemy na Arrowhead przeciwko Chiefs. Drużynie, która jest zdecydowanie słabsza od wspomnianych Titans, Dolphins czy Patriots, których wówczas Baltimore pokonało. I na koniec garść danych historycznych. W ostatnich ośmiu latach zespoły, które przegrały przynajmniej 17 punktami w ostatniej kolejce (i nie dawały odpocząć swoim podstawowym graczom w tym spotkaniu) nie wypadały specjalnie dobrze w play off. Na pięć takich przypadków, w żadnym z nich handicap nie został pokonany. Ostatnim takim zespołem byli Eagles w 2009 roku. Podobnie jak Chiefs obecnie, nie wygrali w sezonie z żadnym zespołem, który awansował do play off (no dobrze, Chiefs pokonali Seahawks ale to trudno liczyć). Interesujące. Będę bardzo zaskoczony jeśli Ravens nie wygrają tego meczu. I powinni to zrobić wysoko i przekonywająco.
Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
To niesamowite, że Eagles pozwolili swoim podstawowym zawodnikom odpocząć w ostatnim meczu by uniknąć urazów a i tak jeden z ich zawodników doznał kontuzji. Gracz offensive line, Max Jean-Gilles, ma problemy z kostką i nie wiadomo czy będzie gotowy do gry w niedzielę. A nawet jeśli tak, to na pewno nie na sto procent. To fatalna wiadomość dla Eagles. Ich offensive line i bez tego była w rozsypce. Pozwolili rywalom na zdobycie aż 49 sacks (trzecie miejsce w tej kategorii w NFL), wliczając w to 29 w ostatnich dziewięciu meczach. Co gorsza, jak twierdził trener Andy Reid, Mike Vick może trafić na ławkę rezerwowych ponieważ ma problemy by rozpoznać akcję blitz jakie szykują obrońcy. Nie sądzę by Reid posunał się aż tak daleko jak zapowiada, jednak faktycznie mecz z Vikings wyglądał dla nich okropnie. Vick faktycznie zawodził w odczytywaniu zamiarów obrony i defensywny koordynator Packers, Dom Capers, z pewnością zdaje sobie z tego sprawę. Capers ma ogromne doświadczenie i umiejętności jeśli chodzi o przygotowywanie formacji obronnych na mecze, z pewnością znajdzie sposób by napsuć krwi rozgrywającemu Eagles i powodować mu mnóstwo problemów. Packers tak naprawdę nie mają jakichś specjalnych słabości w swojej obronie, jednak z pewnością nie są jakoś specjalnie wybitni przeciw akcjom biegowym. Szczęśliwie dla nich Andy Reid często zapomina, że ma wyjątkowego zawodnika na pozycji running back. Bez względu na to czy jest to Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook czy LeSean McCoy. Jak fani Eagles zapewne wiedzą, Reid nie będzie korzystał z akcji biegowych wystarczająco często.
Nie tylko offensive line Eagles jest w rozsypce, ich obrona również nie prezentuje się obecnie zbyt dobrze. Nate Allen, free safety, wypadł a podstawowy cornerback Dimitri Patterson został wręcz upokorzony przez Mario Manningham'a kilka tygodni temu. Gracze z pozycji linebackers również mają sporo problemów, to by wyjaśniało dlaczego Eagles mają problemy by bronić się przeciwko tight ends przez cały rok. Aaron Rodgers rozmontował defensywę Giants dwie kolejki temu i myślę, że podobnie zrobi z Eagles, którzy nie byli w stanie powstrzymać kogoś takiego jak Joe Webb. Jednak czy Packers są w stanie odnieś sukces z ofensywą, która polega głównie na grze podaniami? Wiele osób o to pyta i dość słusznie. Jednak od czasu do czasu Green Bay potrafi wnieść coś pozytywnego w grze biegowej. Na przykład w 15 kolejce przeciw Patriots zdobyli 131 jardów po ziemi. Myślę, że warto by częściej wykorzystywali James'a Starksa. W ograniczonym zakresie, w którym pojawiał się na boisku, wyglądał naprawdę dobrze. Utalentowany pierwszoroczniak może wnieść sporo pozytywnego do ofensywy Packers, która jest w stanie poprowadzić zespół do Super Bowl.
Uważam, że Packers wygrają to spotkanie i to oni awansują do kolejnej rundy. Green Bay to po prostu lepsza drużyna a Eagles w ostatnim okresie są w rozsypce. Jedynym powodem jaki widzę, który uzasadniałby to, że Philadelphia jest faworytem, to fakt, że wiele osób wysoko ceni Vick'a i jego szanse. Jednak prawda jest taka, że w ostatnim miesiącu, poza wyjątkowymi ośmioma minutami w meczu z Giants, nie był specjalnie dobry i przekonywujący. A już na pewno obniżył loty w porównaniu do tego co pokazywał na początku sezonu. To oczywiście nie jest wyłącznie jego wina, cały zespół wypada gorzej, w końcu urazy dają się we znaki, należy jednak zapamiętać, że ofensywa Eagles nie sprawia już wrażenia tak groźnej jak w pierwszych miesiącach sezonu. Poza tym Rodgers należy to szóstki najlepszych obecnie rozgrywających w NFL (Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rivers i właśnie Rodgers). Kiedy tylko zespoły prowadzone przez nich dostają punkty w ramach handicapu, skutecznie wygrywają z nim w prawie 70% przypadków. Nic dziwnego, w końcu to najlepsi QB w futbolu amerykańskim obecnie, prawda? Jako ciekawostkę dodam jeszcze o drużynach z różnych dywizji, które grały ze sobą w sezonie zasadniczym a później miały rewanż w play off. Packers pokonali Eagles na wyjeździe w pierwszej kolejce i teraz przyjdzie im grać znów na stadionie rywali. Od 2002 roku zespoły, które odniosły sukces i ponownie grały z rywalem w takiej sytuacji w play off, wygrały 16 z 24 spotkań i 3 z 4 wyjazdowych. Niemniej najważniejsze dla mnie jest to, że Packers to lepsza drużyna i w ofensywie i w defensywie i powinni z tego meczu wyjść zwycięsko.
Odpowiedzi
Historyczne dane?
Marcin miałbym prośbę, czy mógłbyś się podzieliś wiedzą? tzn. skąd zaczerpujesz informacji jaki jest bilans miedzy danymi drużynami z kilku lat wstecz? z góry dziękuję za odpowiedz.
Dobrym źródłem danych
Dobrym źródłem danych historycznych jest na przykład strona http://www.pro-football-reference.com można się tam dowiedzieć wielu ciekawych rzeczy :)
Wielkie dzieki :)
Twoja wiedza jest nie oceniona :) pozdrawiam.
Podziękowania to raczej nie
Podziękowania to raczej nie do mnie tylko do osób, które udostępniają ogrom świetnych informacji na internecie :) To jest dopiero nieocenione :)
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Kolejny dreszczowiec za nami :) w 2 połowie deffense GB obniżył loty i zaczął słabiej grać, ale intercepted w takim momecie i Eagels pozamiatane :) a jeszcze jedno czy Eagels czasem nie zamienili się kickerem z Cowboys ? :D:D:D
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In Tunisia, the U.S., European and Arab nations asked the U.N. to start drafting plans for a civilian peacekeeping mission that would deploy after the Damascus regime halts the brutal crackdown.
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Still unwilling to commit to military intervention to end the bloodshed, the group offered nothing other than the threat of increasing isolation and sanctions to compel compliance from Assad, who has ignored similar demands.
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"It is time for that regime to move on. And it is time to stop the killing of Syrian citizens by their own government," he said.
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On Thursday, former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan was appointed the joint United Nations-Arab League envoy on the Syrian crisis.
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Annan said in a statement Friday that he would try to "help bring an end to the violence and human rights abuses, and promote a peaceful solution" in Syria. He expressed hope that the Syrian government and opposition groups will cooperate with him in his efforts.
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The Tunisia meeting is the latest international effort to end the crisis, which began when protesters inspired by uprisings sweeping across the Arab world took the streets in some of Syria's impoverished provinces nearly a year ago to call for political change.
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The U.N. estimated in January that 5,400 people were killed in the conflict in 2011. Hundreds more have died since. Syrian activists say the death toll is more than 7,300. Overall figures cannot be independently confirmed because Syria has prevented most media from operating inside the country
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